Nasdaq · QQQ
712.60
chip sell-off · Thu 7/2
Iran's dayslong state funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — killed Feb. 28 in the US–Israeli war — entered its second/third day in Tehran with crowds chanting for revenge and defiance. The weeklong spectacle spans five cities in two countries; representatives from 100+ countries are expected, and the burial is set for Thursday, July 9, at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, his birthplace.12
At a Friday ceremony, Xi Jinping handed full-general rank to Zhang Shuguang — the new head of the Central Military Commission's anti-corruption body — and to Wang Gang, taking over the PLA Air Force. The moves follow a long-running purge that has swept up former CMC vice-chairmen and two ex-defense ministers, read as an effort to lock in the military's loyalty to Xi and the Party.34
The US marked its Semiquincentennial on Saturday with the largest fireworks show on record and a CBS primetime special. President Trump's Independence Day address swerved from the usual unifying tone into sharply political territory, an unusual note for the holiday.5
Pope Leo XIV accepted the 2026 Liberty Medal virtually for America's 250th, urged the US and Europe to welcome migrants, and set off for the migrant hub of Lampedusa. Separately, the Vatican declared the traditionalist Society of St. Pius X in schism, excommunicating bishops and priests who consecrated bishops without the pope's consent.65
The couple tied the knot Friday night at MSG in a ~1,000-guest ceremony officiated by Adam Sandler, the arena turned into a "secret garden," with the pair in custom Dior. Purple billboards outside read "JUST&T MARRIED." The guest list ran from Spielberg to Tom Brady — a genuine culture-level moment, no market angle.78
Anthropic announced its largest compute commitment yet — multiple gigawatts of next-gen capacity with Google ▲GOOG and Broadcom — as run-rate revenue reportedly crossed $30B (from ~$9B at end-2025), with over 1,000 customers now spending $1M+ annually. Multiple trackers say Anthropic has overtaken OpenAI on revenue. This is the "AI capex goes physical" story getting more physical.910
Per July 3 reporting, OpenAI offered the US government roughly a 5% stake, and the White House is in advanced talks with OpenAI, Google and Anthropic on voluntary AI-release standards, with an announcement possibly next week. The government's fingerprints keep showing up on frontier releases — an echo of last month's export-control freeze on flagship models.10
Fortune (Jul 2) frames Sam Altman pitching a new global AI-governance vision even as OpenAI slowly loses share to Google and Anthropic — backdrop being Claude Sonnet 5 (late June) delivering near-Opus performance at lower cost and OpenAI's in-house "Jalapeño" inference chip. The frontier race is now as much about power, chips and politics as parameters.11
QXO and TopBuild said stockholders of both companies overwhelmingly approved the deal (~99% in favor), clearing QXO's acquisition of the building-products distributor. A rare megadeal to close over a holiday weekend.12
PwC's mid-year read has 2026 dealmaking spreading beyond tech into energy, industrials, consumer and pharma — though tech still leads the count, with Amazon's ▲AMZN 2026 investments in Anthropic and Globalstar cited among the marquee names. Nothing universe-moving over the weekend itself.13
The last full US session (Thu, Jul 2) closed soft: a chip-led sell-off dragged QQQ to $712.60 after opening near $726, while the S&P held up better at $744.78 — classic defensive rotation on a growth scare into a weak jobs print. Europe diverged all week, with the Stoxx 600 notching a fresh 52-week high Friday (+0.7%) on its fourth straight weekly gain; Asia was mixed-to-soft on chip drag. Gold sits firm near $4,174 on the geopolitical-plus-rates premium, crude stays contained around $68–69 despite Iran's funeral week, and the 2Y at 4.17% keeps ticking up as the market prices essentially zero 2026 cuts. *Futures snapshot unavailable on the holiday; WTI shown as last-known, all other marks from data pulls.14
New: the funeral is now underway with a fixed Thursday (7/9) burial in Mashhad and rising revenge rhetoric. What hasn't changed: crude is still contained (~$68–69). The tape is watching this through gold and oil, not trading on it — yet. Open question carried: does crude reprice as the funeral peaks?
Mostly carried — the holiday gave no fresh data. The 2Y ticked to 4.17% (7/1) and consensus still sits near zero 2026 cuts; weak data keeps getting read as "kills the hike risk," not "buys a cut." Next real tests: July CPI, then FOMC July 28–29.
Very much alive: Anthropic's gigawatt Google/Broadcom deal, its reported revenue overtake of OpenAI, and OpenAI's 5% stake offer to Washington all landed over the weekend. The narrative has hardened from "models" into "power, chips, and who owns the labs."
Risk tone is constructive-but-nervy: Europe at 52-week highs and firm gold say liquidity is fine, but Thursday's chip-led drop and a soft jobs print hand Monday a growth-scare tint. The transmission channel is the front end — if bad data keeps reading as "kills the hike," the 2Y stays anchored near 4.17% and dips get bought; if it flips to "growth is cracking," rich tech multiples wobble first. The one exogenous flip is crude: Iran's funeral peaks Thursday, and any Hormuz headline that knocks WTI off ~$68 would hit risk fast. Net for the tape: no reason to fight it pre-open, but respect the thin holiday liquidity and the unresolved chip-sentiment question mark into Monday.
Friday's tease paid off. A coronal mass ejection that left the Sun June 30 slammed Earth as a G3 "strong" geomagnetic storm on July 4 — two full levels above NOAA's G1 forecast. Aurora reached ~30 states, as far south as New Mexico, with magenta curtains photographed over Northern California. Bonus for tonight: two more CMEs that departed the Sun July 1–2 are due to arrive ~today (July 5) — worth a look after dark if your sky is clear.1516
Joey Chestnut defended his Nathan's Famous crown on July 4 by inhaling 66 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes — roughly one dog every nine seconds. Miki Sudo took the women's title with 38¾. A nation of 250 years, and this is how we mark it.5